- Bitcoin fell by 8.57% over the last 24 hours alone
- Crypto’s accumulation score is still below 0.5, with big entities in the net distribution range
After recovering to reclaim $95k on the charts, Bitcoin [BTC] once again retraced to a low of $82k. This seemed indicative of the fact that Bitcoin’s average volatility has more than doubled.
When the market behaves like this, there are few accumulation addresses, unless under speculative demand especially arising from external factors. Every time this speculation disappears, these addresses turn to selling.
According to Glassnode, this means that Bitcoin still remains stuck within a distribution phase.
A distribution phase?
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score has remained below 0.5 for 58 consecutive days – Marking an extended period of net distribution. In fact, the ongoing streak is now approaching the average duration for distribution over 1 year, suggesting that it’s still in line with previous cycles.
Source: Glassnode
In fact, over the past year, the distribution phase had an average of 65 days while accumulation cycles lasted 57 days.
In total, BTC saw 170 days in relative accumulation (>0.5) and 196 days in relative distribution (<0.5). Therefore, the accumulation and distribution phases have alternated within a 57-65-day window on average. With the same flashing a reading of 0.9 at press time, the Trend Score seemed to suggest that big players are still in a net distribution regime, with no confirmed transition to accumulation yet.
Source: CheckOnChain
This market behavior among large entities can be further validated by whale and exchange balance change turning positive.
It spiked to 12.9k BTC from a -75.8k. This means that right now, whales are doing more deposits into exchanges than withdrawals, reflecting an intention to sell. With large entities selling, the market might take longer for a sustained transition.
What does this mean for BTC?
As can be seen, Bitcoin is still within the distribution phase. Also, the market is facing the brunt of significant selling pressure, as evidenced by the negative cumulative volume delta.
Over the last 24 hours, this selling activity has strongly affected Bitcoin’s price action. In fact, the aforementioned period saw the crypto drop by 8.57% to trade at $83,908 at press time.
Source: CheckOnChain
To put it simply, until the market transitions to accumulation, Bitcoin will continue to drop on the price charts. However, based on the prevailing market sentiment and external factors, it would seem that there’s no signal for this to happen just yet.
Finally, if investors continue to lack motivation to accumulate while holders continue to sell, we could see BTC drop to $82,500. Once the macroeconomic uncertainties affecting the market cool down, organic demand could return to the market. A shift in investor sentiment could see the crypto reclaim higher levels.
