Does Bitcoin Supporter Pierre Poilievre Still Have a Shot at Winning Canada’s Election?

Canadians go to the polls to choose a new prime minister this month—but will they elect the Bitcoin advocate? 

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is running for Prime Minister against incumbent Mark Carney—who called a snap election after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned. 

Back in January, when Bitcoin was flirting with $100,000 after having previously breached the milestone, Tesla CEO Elon Musk endorsed the crypto-enthusiastic candidate. 

But prediction market participants are now putting their money on Carney—who has criticized Bitcoin in the past and favors a central bank digital currency in the North American country.

On prediction market MYRIAD, nearly 74% of users think Carney will win. (Disclosure: MYRIAD is owned by Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)

Elsewhere, on popular prediction platform Polymarket, Carney has a 76% chance. 

The tide has turned for Poilievre, who until March stood a nearly 70% chance of winning, according to speculators using Polymarket.

Non-crypto polls have also put Carney as the favorite, with an Ipsos poll of 1,000 Canadians giving the Liberal Party a 12-point lead over the Conservatives—46 percent to 34 percent.

Poilievre and Carney are very different candidates: Left-leaning Carney is a former Bank of England governor who focuses on sustainability, green politics and a tough-on-Trump approach.  Poilievre—widely considered a populist by political commentators—also says he’ll be tough on the U.S. president, though has been compared to the new American commander-in-chief in the past. 

The two differ on how big the state should be, with Carney wanting more regulatory oversight of banks, while Poilievre has called for reducing government spending and slashing bureaucracy. 

Trump is perhaps the hottest topic in the April 28 election: The U.S. President has hit Canada with 25% tariffs and has suggested that Canada should become the 51st state of the U.S. 

Trump’s harsh tariffs on major trading partners has rocked crypto and U.S. equities markets, sending Bitcoin’s price and stock indices tumbling. But since the aggressive trade policy, Carney’s popularity has grown—with Canadians approving of his response to the tariffs. 

Poilievre has been pro-Bitcoin for years, once saying in 2022 that due to government mismanagement of the Canadian dollar, “Canadians should have the freedom to use other money, such as Bitcoin.” 

Trudeau criticized the comments as “reckless” at the time, made when Canadian truckers were protesting nationwide vaccination mandates and receiving donations from supporters in Bitcoin—not to mention backing from Musk. 

Still, users on crypto-based prediction markets have their money on another candidate—the one who thinks digital money should be centralized.