- Bitcoin retail holders are offloading aggressively. Meanwhile, smart money is doubling down.
- Can these heavy hitters absorb the macro turbulence and ignite the next leg?
The U.S. dollar index [DXY] just took a nosedive, dropping a hefty 11%, and it’s lighting a fire under risk assets.
U.S. equities bounced hard off their weekly lows, riding the greenback’s weakness. In short, classic risk appetite is back. Investors are chasing alpha and leaving safe havens behind.
But Bitcoin’s [BTC] tape tells a deeper story.
Retail holders have been bleeding out, shedding 247,000 BTC year-to-date, equivalent to a $25.7 billion sell-off in spot terms.
Meanwhile, smart money is stacking aggressively. Businesses have scooped up over 157,000 BTC, with ETFs and government wallets following suit.
Source: River
This tug-of-war between weak hands and heavy hitters is keeping BTC locked in a tight range.
All eyes are on these heavyweights. Can they weather the macro storm stacking up against BTC?
Risk-on rally heats up, but Bitcoin lags behind
Historically, a weaker dollar unlocks risk-asset beta, lifting equities and crypto alike. At press time, the U.S. dollar index slid to its weakest level since early March, down 11% year-to-date.
Source: TradingView
The U.S. stock market is syncing up perfectly with this move. Just last week, the S&P500 climbed +5.3%, its second-best weekly gain since November 2023.
The Nasdaq 100 surged 6.8% this week, marking its second-best performance since November 2023, as the stock market continues its nearly uninterrupted upward momentum.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin started the week at $104.6K but remains stagnant around $104K, struggling to gain traction as investors shift their focus to equities.
Time for institutions to step up!
According to AMBCrypto, this divergence in risk flows signals a sharp retail rotation into traditional assets.
With macro FUD easing, the 90-day tariff pause, and the Fed’s persistent hawkish grind, BTC’s near-term retail bid appears capped. This rotation is a key sentiment inflection – one trader can’t afford to ignore.
Now, it’s up to the whales and institutions to soak up the selling pressure. But whale counts remain sidelined, stuck at 1,448 since the early-April dump.
Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, spot ETFs are making noise. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF has hauled in a cool $800 million in BTC inflows in under five days.
The big players are stepping in, but with retail chasing capital over conviction, BTC’s next move hinges on how deep these heavy hitters want to go.
