Key Takeaways
Has Ethereum bottomed yet?
Back-to-back lower lows, thin bids, and weak post-crash structure suggest Ethereum’s $3.2k floor remains fragile.
Is the current liquidity supporting a breakout?
ETH’s stablecoin supply has hit an all-time high, but FOMO hasn’t kicked in, keeping conviction low.
Has Ethereum [ETH] really bottomed?
ETH kicked off November by breaking through not one, but two key floors. First, a 7.78% dip saw ETH fail to flip $3.8k into support, and that was followed by an even deeper 8.80% drop, struggling to hold $3.5k.
In short, ETH posted two back-to-back lower lows in a single week, which typically signals a bearish market structure.
Does this mean calling Ethereum’s current chop around $3.2k a bottom is a bit premature?
Back-to-back crashes keep Ethereum weak
After back-to-back crashes, Ethereum is struggling to find its footing.
For context, on the 3rd and 4th of November, the market saw another flash crash, triggering a $2 billion liquidation cascade. Sure, it was a small fry compared to mid-October’s $20 billion wipeout.
However, the sentiment hit was clear. ETH dropped 15% to $3.05k, printing two back-to-back lower lows. Sure, a local floor here could rotate some bids in, but the post-crash structure still looks fragile.
Source: TradingView (ETH/USDT)
Flashback to the October crash, ETH chopped for three weeks straight.
During that stretch, Ethereum retested $3.8k four times as bulls tried to reclaim the pre-crash open at $4.3k and build a bottom. Still, selling pressure kept the structure fragile, with no real follow-through.
Fast-forward to now, a bottom around $3.2k won’t trigger a breakout unless follow-through shows up. That said, stablecoin supply on Ethereum just hit an all-time high. So, could this post-crash cycle play out differently?
Liquidity flows in, yet ETH fails to show conviction
Liquidity is piling in, but Ethereum bulls aren’t putting it to work.
On the DeFi side, TVL has slid about $20 billion in the past month, showing funds are either moving out or staying on the sidelines. Even with record stablecoins, bids are thin, and the market structure looks fragile.
On the derivatives side, ETH’s Open Interest hasn’t seen an October-style flush, down $5 billion versus $15 billion back then. That means liquidation pressure is lighter, so thin bids could still spark short-term squeezes.
Source: Glassnode
Supporting the fragile structure, HODLers are still realizing losses.
As the chart above shows, Ethereum’s net P/L remains deep in the red, signaling more realized losses than gains. In fact, on the 4th of November, ETH’s realized P/L hit -$626 million, an eight-month low.
In short, Ethereum isn’t diverging much from its October post-crash setup. FOMO hasn’t kicked in across key sectors despite liquidity flowing in, and with conviction fading, ETH’s 3.2k floor still looks too fragile.
