Key Takeaways
Is Ethereum setting up for a major breakout?
Yes, steady exchange outflows and strong price support above $4,400 point to a potential supply squeeze.
What level could confirm the next rally?
A decisive breakout above $4,952 could send ETH toward the $6,000 mark.
Is Ethereum [ETH] preparing for its next big move?
The first altcoin has been leaving exchanges like Binance [BNB], so that means traders aren’t in a hurry to sell.
With prices holding steady above $4,400 and exchange balances thinning out, the setup looks ready for a potential supply squeeze.
If ETH manages to break past its old ATH near $4,950, some analysts believe the next stop could be $6,000.
Strong holding sentiment
Ethereum’s exchange netflows on Binance have stayed mostly negative between July and October 2025, according to a CryptoQuant report by PelinayPA.
This means more ETH has been leaving the exchange than entering; a sign that holders are reluctant to sell.
During the same period, ETH’s price climbed from around $3,000 to $4,400, supported by shrinking exchange balances.
Source: Cryptoquant
The 30-day SMA of netflows remains below zero, confirming a medium-term supply contraction, and short-term outflows have slightly slowed too.
With fewer tokens available for spot selling, ETH could be headed for a supply squeeze if demand from staking, DeFi, or ETF inflows continues to rise.
The real test lies ahead
While steady outflows have supported Ethereum’s climb, the real challenge is approaching.
ETH has yet to break its ATH with conviction; the brief move above it two months ago showed strength but didn’t confirm a full breakout. For now, the price is consolidating just below resistance.
Source: X
A clean push beyond this level would mark entry into uncharted territory, potentially launching ETH toward $6K and even $8K.
$4.95K is the line to watch
There’s been a clean breakout from the falling wedge pattern, a bullish setup that often comes before strong upward moves.
The next key level is the $4,952 ATH, which now acts as the primary resistance.
A confirmed breakout above this zone would likely open the path toward $6,000, working with the broader bullish structure seen on higher timeframes.
Source: X
As long as the price holds above the $4,400 support zone, the technical outlook remains firmly tilted in favor of the bulls.
