- Strategic ETH accumulation rises as conviction holders absorb supply despite muted market sentiment and DeFi slowdown.
- Long-term wallets hit record inflows, signaling deepening confidence even as Ethereum trades below key resistance.
As market participants grapple with shifting sentiment, Ethereum [ETH] is transforming beneath the surface.
While headlines focus on price swings and DeFi cooling, on-chain data reveals a narrative of strategic accumulation and growing conviction among seasoned holders.
From declining panic selling to record inflows into long-term wallets, Ethereum’s supply behavior contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s [BTC], pointing to a maturing investor base that may be positioning for the next major move.
Ethereum supply shifts show strategic accumulation
The ETH supply dynamics tell a contrasting story compared to BTC. As shown in the heatmap, there’s no significant resurgence from first buyers or momentum buyers — RSI for these cohorts remains muted.
However, conviction buyers have shown consistent accumulation since late March, maintaining a strong RSI around 80, signaling steady belief despite broader market hesitation.
Source: Glassnode
Notably, loss sellers peaked around the 16th of April but have since decelerated, with RSI falling below 50, suggesting a slowdown in panic selling.
This shift in cohort behavior indicates a more strategic accumulation phase rather than a fear-driven exit, pointing to emerging confidence among seasoned holders.
DeFi cools, but accumulators show conviction
Source: X
Despite a recent uptick in trading activity, Ethereum’s DEX ecosystem is still far from its peak.
TVL in Ethereum-based DEXs has dropped nearly 90% from all-time highs, while monthly trading volume is down about 55%. Users may be shifting to other chains or opting for off-chain solutions amid market uncertainty.
Source: Cryptoquant
However, a deeper trend is emerging. Accumulating addresses — wallets that have never sold — are absorbing ETH at unprecedented levels.
In just the last 48 hours, these addresses took in over 640,000 ETH, the largest inflow since 2018. This behavior, visible in CryptoQuant data, shows growing confidence among long-term holders despite price weakness.
Ethereum’s price outlook
Ethereum’s recent price action showed signs of a short-term recovery, but momentum remained fragile. After a sharp drop below $1,700, ETH rebounded to test resistance near $1,800 at press time.
Source: TradingView
The RSI sat around 52, signaling neutral momentum, while the MACD showed a slight bullish crossover — a potential sign of positive trend continuation.
However, volume remained modest, and the rejection near $1,800 suggested that sellers were still active. If ETH can hold above the $1,720-$1,750 range, a retest of $1,850 is possible.
But a failure to maintain support may open the door for a drop back toward $1,650.
