Key Takeaways
Is the dollar weakening or strengthening?
The DXY has been trending downward in 2025, and its ascent since the government shutdown reflected a brief investor retreat to cash.
What does it mean for crypto investors?
The clues pointed toward a market phase where risk assets tend to outperform the market, implying bullishness for crypto.
Ethereum [ETH] saw steady outflows from exchanges even as it dropped toward the $4.2k support zone. A move beyond $4.7k would show buyer dominance and a readiness to push to new all-time highs.
AMBCrypto reported that the $6k mark for ETH was closer than it appeared. Institutional demand has not slowed down, keeping Q4 expectations firmly bullish.
Alphractal Founder and CEO Joao Wedson pointed out a factor that many traders might overlook.
The unexpected correlation, and why it shows investor appetite for ETH
In a post on X, Wedson highlighted the correlation between the Russell 2000 index and the price trends of Ethereum. Broadly speaking, when the small-cap U.S. stock market index rises, Ethereum tends to follow suit.
The analyst observed that this interesting correlation illuminated market risk cycles and investor risk appetite. Rate-cut expectations will make debt financing easier for smaller companies, explaining their stock price rally. This also weakens the dollar.
Interestingly, another analyst pointed out the rise in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since the government shutdown.
The reasoning behind this rise in dollar strength was that uncertainty drove investors to hold onto their cash and wait to see what happens next.
So is the dollar weakening or strengthening?
Source: DXY on TradingView
The key lies in the classic rule: “When in doubt, zoom out.” In 2025, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trending sharply downward, while the global money supply, already rising in recent years, accelerated its growth this year.
These macro shifts help explain the dollar’s weakness. For crypto investors, the outlook remains bullish.
With favorable conditions in place, now may be the right time to increase exposure to risk assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, gold, and silver, depending on individual risk tolerance and return goals.
Specifically for Ethereum investors, on-chain strength was also an encouraging factor. Analyst CryptoOnChain noted that Ethereum’s on-chain activity has entered a new phase since mid-July.
The internal contract calls, a proxy for complex network interactions, have jumped from a baseline of 7 million to a new, sustained floor above 9.5 million.
This was due to the confluence of regulatory green light, corporate adoption, and opening institutional floodgates.
Combined with the macroeconomic clues, this sets up a strong bullish foundation that is likely to send Ethereum prices higher.
