- Ethereum is mirroring its 2023-style breakout cycle, with smart money further supporting this possibility.
- Major headwinds remain to be faced.
Ethereum [ETH] is exhibiting aggressive dip-buying from deep-pocket investors.
On-chain data showed that top-tier ETH wallets amassed 130,000+ ETH as price wicked to $1,781, indicating smart money absorption at a critical demand zone.
However, with excessive supply still present in the market, uncertainty remains. Is the current price action a genuine breakout, or is ETH merely establishing a bottom at a key support level before its next move?
Smart money flow — Sign of a potential dip
A month ago, Ethereum opened at $2,147. At press time, it was down 15%, breaching the critical $2k support for the first time in two years.
In 2023, ETH underwent a six-month consolidation phase before initiating a breakout, with two significant accumulation phases in Q4, ultimately reaching a peak at $4,012.
Some analysts are forecasting a potential repeat rally, drawing parallels to Ethereum’s poor Q1 performance as a precedent for a bull cycle. Considering both micro and macro factors, this hypothesis seems plausible.
Firstly, the high-risk-off sentiment driven by Trump’s economic dump could shift market attention away from Bitcoin, potentially positioning Ethereum for upward momentum.
Additionally, large inflows at key support levels suggested the onset of an accumulation phase, reinforcing the bullish case for ETH.
Notably, Ethereum’s Percent of Supply Held by Top 1% Addresses has surged to an all-time high, with a substantial 96.66% of the total supply concentrated within the hands of whale-tier holders.
Source: Glassnode
This concentration peaked in mid-Q4 last year, coinciding with a marked increase in whale accumulation, which helped fuel ETH’s 71% quarterly rally – Outperforming Bitcoin’s [BTC] 61% during the same period.
As whale accumulation resumes with ETH dipping to $1,780 and showing a 2% bounce to $1,830 at press time, these historical patterns and accumulation trends strengthen the case for this as a potential market bottom.
Could Ethereum be positioning itself for a potential market takeover as Q2 unfolds?
Ethereum’s odds for a repeat rally
Unlike two years ago, market conditions have become more volatile. This is exemplified by the ETH/BTC pair, which has dipped to a five-year low.
Bitcoin’s resilience amid market turbulence has exerted downward pressure on Ethereum, contributing to its weak Q1 performance.
Ethereum’s dominance, which held steady in double digits throughout 2023 and into Q1 2025, has now sharply declined to a record low of just 8%.
Source: CoinMarketCap
While whale activity played a pivotal role in ETH’s breakout to $4k previously, the concurrent peak in the ETH/BTC pair highlights capital rotation as a key factor.
Investors, shifting away from Bitcoin’s high-risk/high-reward profile, funneled capital into Ethereum, adding bullish momentum to its rally.
However, this dynamic has dramatically shifted. Bitcoin’s dominance has surged to a four-year high, breaking 61%, stifling Ethereum’s relative outperformance.
Unless this shift reverses, the likelihood of a repeat rally akin to 2023 remains diminished.
