Key Takeaways
Ethereum surged 35% in four weeks, driven by a fractal-based rally pattern, strong technical indicators, and $11 million spot inflows. Analysts expect further upside if ETH breaks resistance at 0.02938 BTC.
Over the past four weeks, Ethereum [ETH] has taken a bullish path, gaining 35%. The uptrend continued over the past 24 hours, with the asset posting a double-digit gain of just above 10%.
This liquidity shift from Bitcoin to ETH appears to be a key driver of the rally, but there’s more to it. AMBCrypto has analyzed several additional factors likely to influence Ethereum’s next move.
ETH 28-day rally? Fractal says yes!
Market analyst and founder of Alphractal, Joao Wedson, identified a striking pattern between Ethereum and Bitcoin.
According to their research, ETH tends to rally 28 days after Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, likely driven by liquidity rotation from profits realized on BTC.
Historical data supports this idea. In both 2017 and 2021—when Bitcoin traded above $19,000 and later above $68,000—ETH followed with explosive gains.
Source: TradingView
In the 2017 cycle, ETH surged over 100% while BTC lost 30%. In another phase, ETH jumped 80% as BTC dropped 20%.
Based on the same pattern, the countdown has likely begun. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $123,000 on the 14th of July, before declining, potentially setting the stage for Ethereum’s breakout.
AMBCrypto has taken the analysis further by assessing sentiment using the ETH/BTC chart.
Sellers may regret as momentum builds
The ETH/BTC chart is forming new higher highs, confirming strong liquidity inflow into ETH and outflow from BTC.
As of press time, the chart shows a rally approaching a resistance level at $0.02938.
A rejection in this zone could trigger a pullback into the red-shaded demand area. If selling pressure increases, ETH/BTC may decline toward the $0.02605–$0.02540 range.
Source: TradingView
However, sellers might end up taking losses. Technical indicators continue to signal a strong bullish trend.
The Aroon Indicator, which measures trend strength and direction, showed the Aroon Up (orange) hitting 100%, while the Aroon Down (blue) sat at just 7.18%—a clear confirmation of bullish momentum.
In fact, further upside appears likely.
Source: TradingView
AMBCrypto also identified a bullish signal from the Moving Average Ribbon: the short-term 20 and 50 MAs have crossed above the 100-day MA.
A more definitive bullish confirmation would be a crossover above the 200-day MA. If this final flip occurs, sellers at current resistance levels would incur significant losses.
Fresh spot buying in the mix
Spot market investors have returned after two consecutive days of selling.
According to CoinGlass, the Spot Exchange Netflow showed a notable $11 million inflow into Ethereum over the past 24 hours.
Source: CoinGlass
Much of the purchased ETH has moved into private wallets, signaling long-term conviction and a shift in market posture.
If this trend continues, the added liquidity could fuel further momentum, setting ETH on track to establish new highs in the days ahead.
