Key Takeaways
Altcoins are losing steam. Google search interest for “alt season” has dropped by over 50% in a week. Are the odds of another alt cycle fading?
Ten days in, Bitcoin dominance [BTC.D] is still stuck under the 60% resistance. What’s more, Bitcoin [BTC] has lost $230 billion off its $2.48 trillion market cap peak, roughly tracking an 8% drop from its $124k all-time high.
In short, the stage may be set for altcoin rotation.
Think back to late June, BTC.D topped 65% before a 6% pullback, making its biggest dip since the election. Meanwhile, TOTAL2 (market cap ex-BTC) jumped from $1 trillion to $1.7 trillion in just two months.
Source: TradingView (TOTAL2)
However, this wasn’t your typical alt rotation.
Instead, it was an “altcoin” cycle, syncing with BTC bottoming at $100k, before heading into price discovery. In simple terms, capital wasn’t leaving BTC, it was chasing better returns in altcoins.
In. support of this, the Altcoin Season Index jumped from 22 to 50, marking the first meaningful lift since the election. Still, it didn’t hit 75 for a full-blown “alt season.” Hence, the question – Does the current setup have legs for another cycle?
With BTC pausing, is it time for altcoins to shine?
Well, the setup’s looking prime for altcoin rotation.
Bitcoin pulled back from the $117k resistance two days ago, failing to flip it into support. With risk appetite still muted, capital could easily bleed into alternative assets.
That being said, Google search interest for “alt season” cratered by 50% in a week. While it peaked at 100 on 13 August, it is now down to 13. That’s a clear signal that because FOMO isn’t firing yet, risk flows into alts are still tentative.
Source: Trends.google.com
That sets up a clear divergence from the election cycle.
Back then, BTC.D dropped to 54% in three weeks while TOTAL2 ramped to $1.7 trillion. The Altcoin Season Index didn’t just hit 75, it blasted above 85, confirming a full-blown alt season.
Here, the story’s different. BTC.D and TOTAL2 are aligned, but the index is stuck in sub-60 levels, far from flipping this cycle into a full-blown alt season. For investors, that means FOMO hasn’t arrived yet.
