Here’s What US Stock Futures Say About Bitcoin’s Next Move

Bitcoin and Ethereum extended losses on Sunday as traders braced for another volatile week, with U.S. stock futures pointing lower ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.

Bitcoin slipped nearly 1.8% to trade around $82,700, while Ethereum dropped 2.5% to $1,889, as investors assessed the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting regulatory developments.

As of Sunday evening, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined 0.37%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures fell 0.46% and 0.55%, respectively.

Markets are increasingly focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook, with futures traders pricing in a high probability that the central bank will hold interest rates steady this week. 

While expectations for rate cuts later this year remain intact, recent inflation data and strong labor market numbers have raised concerns that the Fed may delay easing monetary policy on Wednesday.

A more hawkish stance could weigh on risk assets, including crypto, which have traded in lockstep with equities in recent months.

Geopolitical tensions are also adding pressure.

President Trump’s recent announcement of new tariffs and potential retaliatory measures from the European Union have injected fresh uncertainty into global markets. 

In addition, his executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve briefly fueled speculation about U.S. government involvement in crypto markets before investors realized no immediate budget had been allocated for purchases.

Bitcoin’s initial spike following the announcement was short-lived, with prices reversing once traders recognized the lack of immediate action from Washington. 

Meanwhile, in the derivatives market, leverage remains high. 

Coinglass data shows crypto futures open interest remains elevated, despite over $253 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours. 

Funding rates, which briefly turned negative during last week’s sell-off, have returned to neutral, suggesting uncertainty in market positioning.

With macroeconomic risks mounting and regulatory developments unfolding, traders are looking for a catalyst to break the current downtrend. 

The Federal Reserve’s policy decision, coupled with any new signals from institutional investors or regulatory bodies, could determine whether crypto markets regain momentum or face further downside pressure in the coming weeks.