- According to Pompliano, BTC could outperform gold.
- Tariff uncertainty and weak BTC sentiment could extend gold’s lead in the short term.
Gold has outperformed Bitcoin [BTC] in 2025 amid tariff uncertainty as investors flee to it as a haven.
On the contrary, BTC reacted like a risk-on asset and followed U.S. equities’ performance until recently. BTC has dropped 10%, while gold was up over 25% on a YTD (year-to-date) basis.
In a recent CNBC interview, Anthony Pompliano, a BTC investor and founder of Professional Capital Investments, stated that BTC could outperform gold in the long run. He said,
“Gold always leads these rallies. When gold runs, about 100 days or so later, Bitcoin always catches up and runs much harder.”
BTC vs. gold
Source: BTC vs. gold performance, TradingView
Indeed, BTC (yellow) has a history of positively correlating with gold (cyan) after decoupling periods, as Pompliano stated.
Per the chart, BTC and gold decoupled in early November and February but became positively correlated again in December and January.
Even so, gold has outperformed BTC by 37% in 2025 per BTC/gold ratio. Although the indicator retreated to pivotal trendline support at press time, it remains to be seen if BTC could regain lost ground against gold.
Source: Source: BTC/gold ratio, TradingView
In the past few days, BTC has tightly consolidated between $83K and $85K, while the U.S. equities dumped.
Reacting to the resilience, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated,
“$MSTR up 7% YTD while $QQQ is down 10% is not something i would have predicted. I’m also surprised BTC is at $85k after all this; both good signs imo, shows toughness and counters that its just high beta version of tech.”
He added that Michael Saylor and ETFs bought so much BTC in the past 12 months that it found a stronger base than past cycles.
That said, overall demand and bullish conditions for BTC remained elusive. According to CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index, it has been a ‘Bull Off’ season in the past 60 days.
This mirrored the weak conditions seen during the 2022 crypto winter and was marked by negative price action.
Source: CryptoQuant
The overall market sentiment has been ‘fear’ since February, and a decisive rebound could only be determined by an end to ongoing tariff uncertainty.
In the meantime, the uncertainty could tip gold to extend its winning streak against BTC.
