- OM plunged 95% as whale exits intensified and resistance formed above current levels.
- Despite address growth, derivatives data shows indecision and failed recovery attempts.
Mantra [OM] has plunged below $0.32 after a catastrophic 95% drawdown from its March peak above $6, triggered by a structural breakdown and intense market capitulation.
This steep collapse followed a breakdown from a descending price channel, triggering a massive capitulation candle.
Since then, OM has consolidated in a low-volume danger zone. The RSI now reads 25, underscoring oversold conditions. Price action remains weak, with no bullish follow-through.
Despite this, user activity has climbed, hinting at persistent retail interest.
However, structural breakdown, investor losses, and whale exits continue to weigh heavily on OM’s outlook—raising doubts over whether sentiment alone can power a rebound.
Source: TradingView
Are whales still dumping OM despite brief inflow attempts?
Large holder activity shows continued bearish pressure. Whale netflows have dropped by 129% over the last 30 days and over 4000% in the past 90 days, confirming long-term distribution.
While a 7-day net inflow spike of 234% recently occurred, this may reflect opportunistic accumulation rather than conviction buying.
Whales have largely avoided sustained accumulation, implying distrust in OM’s immediate recovery.
Historically, such outflows coincide with sharp trend breaks and prolonged price weakness. Consequently, without strong and sustained inflows, OM remains at risk of further whale-driven downside pressure.
Source: IntoTheBlock
How much overhead resistance do trapped holders create?
On-chain data shows 93.77% of OM holders are currently out of the money. Only 6.23% of addresses are profitable, with most investors trapped between $0.32 and $5.
This creates immense overhead resistance, as any bullish bounce may face sell pressure from loss-averse holders.
The largest clusters of underwater supply reside just above the current price, making breakout attempts extremely difficult.
As a result, bullish momentum could fade quickly if $OM cannot flip the $0.40 region into support. The weight of unrealized losses is likely to suppress upward price action.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Why is address activity rising while price drops?
Despite OM’s collapse, address stats have increased. New addresses are up 21.84% in the past week, while active and zero-balance wallets have grown by 11.29% and 21.28% respectively.
This suggests rising user engagement or speculative accumulation near perceived bottom zones.
However, retail participation alone may not reverse macro trends. Without institutional or whale support, retail interest can wane quickly. Still, this growth hints at lingering optimism in the market.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Are derivatives traders signaling confusion or setup?
The derivatives market reflects heightened volatility and indecision. Long liquidations total $457K, while shorts were wiped out for $143K, showing aggressive two-sided positioning.
Most liquidations occurred around $0.30 to $0.35, suggesting this zone acts as both trap and trigger.
The tug-of-war between bulls and bears has led to unstable price action, with no clear trend emerging.
This liquidation pattern reflects confusion more than clarity. Unless one side gains control, OM could remain rangebound.
Source: Coinglass
Can sentiment alone revive OM’s momentum?
OM’s structural breakdown, weak whale support, and underwater holder base all point to continued downside risk.
While retail address activity is rising and some whales show signs of accumulation, these remain insufficient for a full reversal.
Unless OM can reclaim higher resistance levels and reduce holder losses, sentiment alone may not be enough to drive a sustainable recovery.
