- Toncoin formed a symmetrical triangle as spot buyers dominate and the price nears $3.51 resistance.
- Despite weak user activity, investor accumulation grew while whales and retail reduce exposure.
Toncoin [TON] was trading at $3.16, at press time, after forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, a structure known for signaling imminent volatility.
Price action has continued to compress between converging support and resistance trendlines, with the apex drawing near. Immediate resistance levels lie at $3.51 and $4.12, while support rests near $2.93.
The narrowing price range suggests that a decisive move could occur soon. If bulls manage to push beyond the resistance trendline, it could spark momentum toward higher targets.
However, failure to break out could reinforce the broader downtrend still visible on the higher timeframe.
Source: TradingView
Are the bulls quietly loading up on TON before the breakout?
Market behavior in the spot arena reveals growing buy-side pressure, with the 90-day Taker Buy CVD showing buyer dominance.
This means that aggressive buyers are lifting offers rather than waiting passively, often an early sign of accumulating bullish momentum.
As price consolidates, this persistent buyer aggression could exhaust sell walls and trigger a breakout.
However, the breakout remains unconfirmed for now, and traders will likely seek confluence with volume surges or candle structure above $3.51 before acting confidently on long setups.
Source: CryptoQuant
Most holders sit on losses: Will they exit or double down?
On-chain data shows that 68.32% of Toncoin holders are currently out of the money, while only 18.40% remain profitable.
An additional 13.29% are holding near break-even levels. This distribution creates potential headwinds: many holders might sell into any rally to recover losses.
However, it also presents an opportunity. If demand absorbs this selling pressure, sidelined capital may re-enter the market, leading to a supply squeeze.
Therefore, the current structure becomes a test of whether accumulation can overpower latent exit liquidity.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Active address count drops: Is Toncoin losing traction?
Fundamental user activity has slumped, with daily active addresses falling 38.59% and new addresses dropping 53.13% over the last 7 days.
This sharp contraction reflects weakened short-term engagement with the network. Historically, active user growth aligns with price rallies; hence this pullback may undermine bullish continuation unless reversed.
However, it’s also possible that traders are sidelined, waiting for confirmation before re-engaging.
A breakout may reawaken activity, especially if accompanied by renewed social interest or fundamental upgrades.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Speculators circle while investors accumulate: Is TON poised for a breakout move?
TON’s derivatives volume has surged by 24.84% to $116.63M, reflecting rising speculative interest in the current price range.
Surprisingly, open interest has declined slightly by 1.08%, indicating no significant increase in directional commitment. This means that while more trades are happening, many may be short-term or hedged.
Traders are likely expecting volatility but are waiting for stronger technical confirmation before building directional exposure.
In the past 30 days, investor holdings in Toncoin have increased by 4.01%, even as whales and retail holders reduced their positions by -1.66% and -1.21%, respectively.
This shift suggests that mid-tier market participants are positioning for long-term upside during consolidation.
Historically, rising investor class holdings have been bullish, as these holders tend to be more patient than retail and less manipulative than whales.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Can buy-side strength overpower resistance?
TON’s tightening triangle pattern, paired with spot market buy dominance and investor accumulation, presents a bullish setup.
However, bearish pressure from the high number of unprofitable holders and waning user activity may limit upside if not reversed.
The next few sessions will be critical: a confirmed breakout above $3.51 could attract sidelined capital and invalidate short-term bearish pressures. Until then, caution remains warranted.
