Musk-Trump Truce Sends Dogecoin Skyward, With Ethereum Along for the Ride: Analysis

The DOGE days of summer may be here, as the crypto market’s top meme coin Dogecoin is beginning to show signs of comeback. The reason? Elon Musk, again, if you can believe it. But it’s not just Elon—a look at the charts shows traders may have good reason to think good times for DOGE could keep rolling. And it’s not just DOGE either, with bullish momentum building for Ethereum as well.

Dogecoin today jumped 6.32% to $0.20 before correcting to its current price of $0.19552, breaking above the $0.19 resistance level as Elon Musk’s attempt at a public reconciliation with Donald Trump eased political tensions and ETF approval speculation intensified. Trading volume neared $1.65 billion, up 827% from the previous day, confirming genuine market interest behind the breakout.

The primary catalyst for today’s rally appears to be Elon Musk’s apology to Donald Trump, where he stated his recent comments “went too far,” marking a significant de-escalation in their feud. This reconciliation carries weight for Dogecoin investors who usually react heavily on Musk-related news, as Trump had previously threatened to revoke $22 billion in SpaceX contracts. Musk’s conciliatory tone reduced systemic risk for his ventures and indirectly boosted confidence in DOGE, given the Tesla CEO’s historically tight influence on the meme coin’s price movements. The 6% intraday spike to $0.199 coincided with Musk’s public statement.

Adding fuel to the rally, Bloomberg analysts led by Eric Balchunas have upgraded Dogecoin’s spot ETF approval odds to 80%, higher than Cardano’s or Polkadot’s 75% odds. This institutional interest marks a paradigm shift for what has traditionally been viewed as a retail-driven meme asset. The availability of CFTC-regulated futures strengthens the case for ETF approval, potentially opening doors for pension funds and institutional portfolios with deep pockets to gain DOGE exposure.

Technical analysis shows some bullish signals across multiple timeframes. DOGE is trying to break above its 50-day EMA (the average price of the asset over the last 50 days) at $0.1933, with the Relative Strength Index in the neutral zone at 48 points. The Average Directional Index, which tells how strong a specific price trend is, is at 21 points, which shows the recent price correction is severely weakening the bearish trend that took the price of DOGE down from $0.25 to $0.16 in the last few weeks.

Overall, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed to 72 (firmly in “greed” territory), up from 57 last week, favoring risk-on assets. The broader meme coin sector is outperforming, with the SPX6900 token up 80% in the last 30 days and Trump-themed coins and Doge clones surfing the wave.

Immediate resistance sits at around $0.214 for DOGE. A golden cross formation (a 50-day average crossing above the 200-day average) remains in play, but the gap stopped decreasing on May 30, so there should still be a few days of short-term bullish trends before a medium-term bullish trend can be confirmed.

Next key levels to watch: Resistance at $0.214. Support at $0.186

Ethereum up as cash flows into funds

Ethereum jumped 2.3% to approximately $2,880 before correcting to its current price of $2,819 over the past 24 hours, driven by regulatory optimism and both retail and institutional investors pouring $125 million into Ethereum ETFs yesterday. The combined catalysts of political pressure on the SEC and significant on-chain accumulation have pushed ETH through key technical resistance levels.

The bipartisan CLARITY Act nearing a vote could cement Ethereum’s status as a CFTC-regulated commodity, resolving years of regulatory ambiguity and potentially unlocking major funds in additional institutional inflows.

Technical indicators present a mixed but ultimately bullish picture. ETH broke above both its 10-day ($2,472) and 50-day EMA ($2,395), hinting at big investor appetite for the coin, with the RSI at 68 showing room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions.

The ADX at 24 also shows there is a strong bullish momentum in the price trend, with potential for the asset to escape a “death cross” formation soon. A death cross is when the short term prices (50-day EMA) go below the long term average (200-day EMA), and traders don’t usually like it when that happens.

However, despite all the good signs, there are also some challenges that the coin must overcome. Purely based on the charts, today’s doji—a neutral candlestick, with long wicks and almost no body—shows that day traders may be feeling a bit of exhaustion, having difficulty pushing prices upwards after a big week.

Also, competition from Solana’s ecosystem processing 5x Ethereum’s daily transactions poses a scalability narrative threat, though ETH maintains dominance in institutional trust and stablecoin volume ($908 billion vs. $18 billion).

Next key levels to watch: Resistance at $2,900. Support at $2,600-$2,400