- It was too early for Peter Schiff to claim that BTC has hit a ‘major top.’
- None of the 30 key market peak indicators showed overheated signs as of June 2025.
Bitcoin [BTC] briefly dipped to $102K on the 12th of June after Israel attacked Iran.
Amid fears of potential region-wide escalation, markets nuked, with BTC extending its weekly losses to 7% alongside with U.S. stock market dump.
Amid the risk-off sentiment, gold ripped higher to $3.4K. The divergence, according to long-time critic, Peter Schiff, meant BTC has hit a ‘major top.’ He said,
“Priced in gold, Bitcoin is now more than 15% below its Nov. 2021 peak.”
Bitcoin vs. gold
He added that BTC’s failure to rise against gold for over three years despite government backing and corporate treasury craze, suggested the ‘bubble has peaked.’
“A major top has been formed, as Bitcoin has been distributed from strong to weak hands. The whales have been cashing out to latecomers who will be left holding the bag.”
He was right on one thing: BTC was below its 2021 peak relative to gold at press time.
According to the BTC/gold ratio, which tracks BTC’s relative price performance to gold, BTC was about 22% away from clearing the 2021 peak in gold terms.
Source: BTC/gold ratio, TradingView
In 2021, the BTC/gold ratio topped out at 37. A fake breakout at 40 in January led to a 36% dip to 26. In other words, gold outperformed BTC by 36% in Q1 2025.
However, it was too early to make a ‘top call’ because the BTC/gold ratio was still in a multi-year uptrend, as shown by the ascending channel (white).
Perhaps, if the channel breaks lower, then Schiff’s projection could be possible.
In fact, a composite of market cycle peak indicators from ETF flows to valuation models like MVRV Z-Score, none flagged a likely peak as of press time.
According to the CoinGlass’ Bull Market Peak Indicators, none of the 30 metrics showed overheated signs. This suggested that current levels were a solid 100% ‘HOLD’ despite the Middle East tensions.
In addition, investor Ken Teng, popularly known as Chicken Genius on X, claimed that the U.S. will likely print more money to try to salvage its debt situation.
This will likely rally BTC higher, a thesis commonly known as ‘nothing stops this train’ in Crypto Twitter.
Glassnode echoed Teng’s outlook, underscoring that the plunge didn’t crack key short-term supports, including the short-term holder (STH) realized price at $97K.
“Despite the recent pullback, BTC remains above most major short-term cost basis levels…As most short-term holders are still in profit, the top-heavy risk seems limited.”
Source: Glassnode
