In brief
- Polymarket odds for a U.S. strike on Iran peaked at 67% amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
- The surge followed Israeli airstrikes and increased U.S. military presence, but has since fallen to 50%.
- The shift reflects growing uncertainty among speculators over the likelihood of conflict.
As tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, gamblers on Polymarket are betting heavily that the U.S. will carry out military action against Iran before the end of June.
On Monday, the odds that the U.S. will strike Iran before July reached 67%.
The surge in betting comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East.
On Thursday, after Israel launched airstrikes and drone attacks against Iran, Bitcoin dropped 4% to $103,556 from a 24-hour high of $108,500.
Although no official confirmation or public military directive from the Trump administration has been issued, the Polymarket odds for U.S. action against Iran rose 32% from 35% on March 31, when the market opened, to 67% by June 16.
“Trump said that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Iran has one nuclear facility only U.S. bombers can reach,” one yes voter wrote. “The U.S. has sent fighter jets and ships to the Middle East. And people on here are betting for an attack not to happen? Seriously, this has to be the most irrational group of market participants on the planet.”
While prediction markets do not guarantee outcomes, they are often viewed as a real-time aggregation of public sentiment and informed speculation. In this case, traders respond to geopolitical developments, military positioning, or shifts in diplomatic rhetoric.
“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society,” Polymarket said in a statement on the poll.
“That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not,” it added.
Polymarket’s “yes” probability has dropped from its 67% peak to 50%—a roughly 17-point decline from its high.
“Be kind and ask a yes holder how their day was,” a no voter wrote.
Whether the yes gamblers are proven to be right remains to be seen. But for now, Polymarket is signaling a clear message: many bettors believe time is running out to avoid a confrontation.
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair
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