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Polymarket has been approved to re-launch in the U.S. after a three-year ban. Will it extend its dominance over Kalshi?
Polymarket is set to go live in the U.S. markets again, according to the CEO, Shayne Coplan. In an X (formerly Twitter) post on the 3rd of September, Coplan said,
“Polymarket has been given the green light to go live in the USA by the CFTC.”
Source: X
This would reverse nearly three years of ban by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). The regulator fined the prediction markets provider $1.4 million for running an unregistered derivatives trading platform.
Although Polymarket faced more bans overseas, it didn’t stop it from gaining market dominance.
Prediction market space heats up
Interestingly, Polymarket has bagged both regulatory and strategic wins in 2025.
Last month, Donald Trump Jr’s 1789 Capital made a strategic investment in the platform and became part of the advisory board.
Additionally, it partnered with Elon Musk’s X platform and acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed clearing house, as part of its U.S. re-entry plans.
Betting sites, or ‘prediction markets,’ have gained traction for their better accuracy on outcomes of future events compared to media surveys. Hence, collaborations with social media giants like X and others are projected to grow.
As expected, most of the crypto community welcomed Polymarket’s return to the U.S., calling it ‘huge.’
Since its debut in 2020, the platform saw major breakthroughs and market interest during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The market expected it to fade after the elections. On the contrary, however, it has been on a tear even after 2024, with over $15 billion in monthly cumulative trading volume.
Source: The Block
That said, the anticipated re-entry into the U.S. markets has renewed the rivalry with Kalshi, another top prediction platform.
In fact, Will LeGate, Polymarket’s growth lead, stated that Kalshi’s regulatory moat doesn’t exist anymore after the CFTC’s greenlight.
Source: X
The deregulation, especially in the crypto space, has been a key agenda of President Donald Trump.
With no regulatory leverage and fair access, it remains to be seen which platform will dominate the prediction markets.
