- The U.S. spot SOL ETFs approval could happen in July or October.
- SOL saw modest selling pressure but recorded a low spot and Futures market demand.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed a decision on Franklin Templeton’s spot Solana [SOL] ETF (exchange-traded funds) application.
Reacting to the update, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the delay was ‘expected’ and added,
“(Approval) odds 90%. Ball in the SEC’s court after the S-1s refiled. Dialogue between the SEC and issuers is a great sign. Timeline less clear, though 2-4 weeks is ambitious.”
His Bloomberg colleague, James Seyffart, highlighted that he won’t be surprised if the products are launched ‘next month’ or by the October deadline.
“I wouldn’t be completely shocked if we see approvals for Solana ETFs in the next month or so. But i also wouldn’t be surprised if we have to wait until the final deadline in October. Timeline unknown.”
Here, it’s worth noting that the regulator has engaged with issuers regarding the SOL ETF staking filings, a move the analysts deemed positive for approval.
SOL’s modest pressure, low demand
In fact, even VanEck’s SOL ETF (VSOL) was already on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation’s (DTCC) active pre-launch list.
This mirrored the BTC and ETH ETF approval timeline, further boosting SOL’s chances.
Source:: DTCC
That said, despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions, SOL didn’t record massive profit-taking or sell-offs. Glassnode data showed that realized profit dropped to $32 million on the 17th of June.
Meanwhile, past SOL local price peaks have attracted profit taking between $700M and above $1 billion. Put differently, current modest sell pressure suggested participants expected SOL to climb higher.
Source: Glassnode
That said, SOL’s spot market demand has dropped since mid-May, as shown by the declining spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta).
Similarly, speculative interest has waned, as demonstrated by the southward movement of the CVD Futures.
In short, overall market interest has declined across spot and derivatives sectors, and could delay a strong rebound for SOL if the trend continues.
Source: Coinalyze
Over the same period, SOL has dropped from $180 to $147, down 22%. If approved, the ETF inflows could help SOL reverse recent losses and even print a new ATH.
In fact, last year, market maker GSR, predicted that SOL may increase 1.4x in a bear case or explode 8.9x in a bullish scenario if ETFs are approved.
That’s an implied price target of $170-$1000 based on its projection, with a baseline around $400.
