Key Takeaways
The market has already priced in Spot SOL ETF approval, raising expectations for a new ATH attempt. Will crypto treasury inflows and Q4 rotation fuel SOL’s rally?
Solana [SOL] defended $200 and was on track to hit a 13% monthly gain in August amid ETF expectations.
On the 29th of August, seven issuers filed updated Spot ETF filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Canary/Marinade, Bitwise, Fidelity, Franklin, Grayscale, 21Shares and VanEck all made their submissions. ETF analyst Nate Geraci called the coordinated filings a “very good sign” for the likely greenlight for the products.
Source: X
For his part, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said that the update meant “positive back and forth” between issuers and the SEC.
The latest development meant the approval was extremely likely, with Polymarket placing a +99% chance that the regulator will allow the products to hit the market.
SOL’s new ATH incoming?
During the peak memecoin mania in early 2025, SOL hit an all-time high (ATH) of $295.8. With the ETF pipeline and nearly $1 billion demand venue from crypto treasuries, the altcoin could take another shot at a new ATH.
In fact, Wall Street analyst Tom Lee agreed with the above projection. In a recent post, Lee echoed a forecast made by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, which stated,
“The formula is simple: ETF Flows + Treasury Company + Simple Story = All-Time Highs. It worked for Bitcoin, it’s working for Ethereum, and it’s lined up for Solana.”
Having said that, Hougan predicted major rotation into SOL during Q4.
Meanwhile, in the past month, the altcoin saw a 4.9% surge in Realized Cap Inflows. However, ETH still led in price outperformance.
Source: Glassnode
So, will SOL’s price top $300 in Q4? Well, some analysts stated that the level is reachable amid the upcoming bullish catalysts.
But in the meantime, if historical performance plays out, SOL could face a little headwind in September and perhaps offer new buying opportunities for a potential ‘Uptober’ rally.
Source: CryptoRank
On average, September has always yielded 3% gain for SOL, making it the second-worst month for the altcoin after December. Even so, the past four months of September closed in green.
Futures volume map flashes “overheated”
Another red flag was the Futures Volume Bubble Map, which flashed an ‘overheated’ signal, indicating that there was more trading volume despite weakening price momentum at current levels.
Per CryptoQuant, the indicator implied that the start of a distribution phase could happen soon.
Source: CryptoQuant
Overall, consensus across analysts and prediction markets pointed toward approval of Spot SOL ETFs. Of course, many now expect Solana to attempt a new ATH by Q4.
In the meantime, bulls may have to prepare for a bumpy September if historical trends repeat.
