Key Takeaways
Are whales buying Solana ahead of the ETF decision?
Yes, large investors are increasing spot exposure as anticipation builds for the ETF ruling on the 16th.
Is the market fully confident in a breakout?
Futures data shows cautiousness, with negative funding rates and low conviction.
Solana [SOL] whales have stepped up accumulation ahead of the spot ETF decision expected on the 16th of October, yet not all market signals confirm bullish conviction.
Derivatives data showed lingering caution and negative Funding Rates after last weekend’s liquidation crash.
Can SOL shake off the slump and breakout, or is the market still too wary to jump back in?
Whales return as Solana momentum builds
Historically, such spikes have aligned with sharp price rallies, as whales tend to accumulate aggressively before major catalysts.
Source: CryptoQuant
This could be in anticipation of the impending ETF decision, due on the 16th. If approved, it may trigger strong demand and limit available supply, being an effective catalyst for a major rally.
Having said that, past accumulation phases have delivered 40–70% price jumps within weeks, but only when Derivatives sentiment aligned with Spot flows.
Futures market in recovery mode!
While whales are making moves on the Spot market, the Futures side is a bit more cautious.
Source: Coinalyze
Open Interest dropped during the recent liquidation wave and has yet to recover, holding around $4.3 billion at press time.
Moreover, Funding Rates remained negative at -0.18%, suggesting traders were reluctant to open long positions.
And, while big investors may be accumulating on-chain, sentiment in the Derivatives market hadn’t fully flipped bullish yet. A rebound would confirm a stronger conviction.
SOL price under pressure
Source: TradingView
After rebounding from $175 to over $205, SOL faced more selling, slipping to around $195 at press time. The RSI showed weak momentum, but not yet oversold conditions.
Meanwhile, the MACD remained below the signal line, so bearish pressure still lingered.
A close above $210 could flip short-term sentiment bullish, while failure to hold the $190 support may invite further declines.
