- Solana ended Q1 down 34.7% from its $190 opening, undercutting structural support levels.
- Fundamentals alone were not enough to offset profit-taking.
Solana [SOL] kicked 2025 off like it had something to prove — and it did.
Q1 was defined by relentless on-chain activity, driving sustained price strength for SOL. Transaction throughput surged, active address count climbed, and network engagement hit fresh highs.
But what about price action? Did that operational velocity translate into meaningful market traction? Not quite.
Despite the fundamentals, SOL closed Q1 down 34.7% from its $190 opening, mirroring broader market weakness as many peers chopped sideways.
Now, as we head deeper into Q2, investors must ask: Can Solana deliver on both fronts — Robust fundamentals and a rebound in quarterly returns?
Q1 snapshot: Record activity amid price pressure
Messari’s deep dive breaks down Solana’s Q1 blowout in key metrics.
Chain GDP popped 20% QoQ to $1.2 billion, while stablecoin supply rocketed 145% to $12.5 billion – USDC alone up 148% to $9.7 billion.
In fact, daily DEX volume hit $4.6 billion on average, spiking to a staggering $36 billion on the 18th of January — that’s more than 10% of Nasdaq’s daily trading.
Source: Messari
Big players like BlackRock and ApolloGlobal launched real-world assets (RWA). Plus, prediction markets like Polymarket added Solana support, showing the network is attracting serious capital and use cases.
This hypergrowth over 90 days confirms Solana’s devs are methodically stacking bricks for the next big DeFi and Web3 wave, reinforcing AMBCrypto’s thesis that a spot Solana ETF could be closer than the market thinks.
But let’s keep it real: Fundamentals are only half the battle.
If SOL can’t turn this on-chain strength into price alpha and reward patient holders during the FUD grind, a pullback to the Q1 floor of $95 is on the table. And the early warning signs are flashing.
LTH sell-off sparks doubts over Solana’s Q2 conviction
Solana kicked off Q2 at $124.56 and has since ripped to $167.72 – a clean 34.4% leg up.
Early dip buyers are comfortably in the green, with cost basis anchored near the $95 Q1 floor, now sitting 75% above spot.
Unrealized gains are piling up, but with late longs crowding in, the setup’s looking ripe for exit liquidity.
On the 14th of May, Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) spiked to a monthly high of 1.7 billion as SOL printed $176.65.
Source: Glassnode
For context, a spike in CDD suggests older, high-conviction holders are offloading into strength.
Since that peak, SOL has shed nearly 6%, echoing past cycles where major CDD blowouts coincided with market tops.
Therefore, for Q2 to stay bullish, Solana needs more than just usage metrics. Instead, it needs a sustained bid-side conviction and fresh capital inflows to convert its operational strength into actual quarterly returns.
Otherwise, this rally risks turning into another round of distribution masked by high activity.
