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SOL could extend its Q3 recovery to $215, before eyeing $250, according to MEXC’s chief analyst. But can bulls outrun September weak seasonals and declining network activity?
In August, Solana [SOL] locked in a 16% gain, bringing Q3 returns to 30%.
Despite a historically weak September performance, MEXC’s chief analyst, Shawn Young, projected the altcoin could tag $215, suggesting a potential 7% extra gain.
In a statement, Young told AMBCrypto that the recent Alpenglow, which promises a 100x speed improvement, alongside expected ETF inflows and over $1.7B in crypto treasury demand, could drive the recovery.
“The alignment of technical innovation, structural accumulation, and ETF-related inflows raises the stakes for SOL, setting the stage for an inflection point in adoption and price discovery.”
Young added,
“These (catalysts) could see SOL price rise as high $215 before the end of September and $250 before the end of Q4, provided macro headwinds don’t return to the market.”
In fact, some expected SOL to rally to $300 by the end of the year. But will the network activity decline drag the rally in the short term?
Solana network activity declines by 90%
Despite the bullish mid-term outlook, other market watchers cautioned that network activity on the chain has dropped by 90%.
The number of traders on the Solana network declined from over 30 million at the peak of Q4 2024 to about 3 million as of September 2025. This slow DEX traction could affect SOL demand.
Source: Dune Analytics
For his part, analyst Ted Pillows noted that the massive liquidity cluster at $160-$180 could be tested before SOL fronts a rally to a new ATH by Q4.
“I think $SOL could sweep the downside liquidity in September before a new ATH in Q4.”
Source: CoinAnk
In fact, the largest lower liquidity cluster was concentrated around $170-$175, making it a key zone in case of a pullback.
Interestingly, the price charts leaned towards the above thesis. So far, SOL has faced price rejections at the upper limit of the ascending triangle (yellow) and the Bollinger Bands.
If history repeats, the $215-$220 could become a key supply zone in the short term.
Source: SOL/USDT, TradingView
The mid and lower range limits of the Bollinger Bands have also acted as key supports in the past. Currently, this was aligned with the $175-$180 level (white), making it a key support to watch in case of an extended correction.
