Key Takeaways
Toncoin can be expected to climb towards $10 and $50, provided adoption and usage continue to grow strongly. However, technical analysis and on-chain metrics showed bears had the upper hand at press time.
Toncoin [TON] hit its all-time high of $8.25 in June 2024. Since then though, its price trend has been weak on the higher timeframes. Despite it rallying to $3.56 towards the end of July.
Even as Bitcoin [BTC] made a new all-time high, and Ethereum’s [ETH] price shot north, The Open Network’s native token was unable to keep pace.
However, The Open Network has an advantage that Ethereum does not. While the latter is still the go-to for smart contract development and DeFi, TON has an advantage in terms of mass adoption.
It is the only blockchain embedded into Telegram, the popular messaging app. TON acts as the social network’s invisible backbone, and can be used to pay for Telegram Premium and creator earnings. With 900 million users on Telegram, onboarding a sizeable share of this figure to TON could help boost demand for the token.
A hike in decentralized apps on the network, more active staking and staking services, and steady adoption over the years can drive Toncoin’s price towards $10. A highly optimistic outcome, but Toncoin becoming the Web3 leader in blockchain integration and messaging services might fuel a TON rally to $50 by 2030.
What is in store for TON this cycle?
Santiment data revealed that the total number of holders has been rising steadily. It stood at roughly 37k holders on-chain at press time. This number was far from the 300 million Telegram users the network hopes to capture by 2028.
The mean coin age has been moving sideways since late June. This indicated a lack of network-wide accumulation over the past two months. The MVRV ratio was just barely positive, even as the price slumped towards the $3-mark.
This was not a bullish sign for TON and showed a tendency of holders to take profits and an unwillingness to accumulate in recent weeks.
Source: TON/USDT on TradingView
The weekly price chart highlighted why this might be. The long-term trend of TON has been bearish. Meanwhile, the rest of the altcoin market recorded sizeable gains from March. Toncoin was unable to keep up.
The swing high at $4.2 must be converted to support before a steady higher timeframe uptrend comes into play. The consolidation phase, since March, was accompanied by a negative CMF which highlighted capital flows out of the market.
Overall, the technical and on-chain metrics did not bode too well for Toncoin in the coming weeks.
