Short-term holders have sent 55,000 Bitcoin—worth approximately $4.6 billion at the time of writing—to exchanges at a loss within the past 24 hours, according to data shared via CryptoQuant.
Their apparent selling has occurred as the biggest cryptocurrency recovers slightly after dipping below $80,000 for the first time since early November, reversing the gains it made following Donald Trump’s election victory.
Today’s movements follow a period of several days in which short-term holders (STHs)—defined as addresses that have held Bitcoin for a period of fewer than 155 days—have repeatedly shifted large quantities of the cryptocurrency to trading platforms.
Wednesday saw as much as 80,000 BTC move to exchanges via STHs, while yesterday’s figure was as much as 65,000 BTC.
By comparison, long-term holders (LTHs) have been much less active, with their total supply of Bitcoin actually creeping up by 47,000 since February 14.
Yet according to YouHodler’s Chief of Markets, Ruslan Lienkha, LTHs have been “partially selling” and taking profits since mid-December. That’s actually one of the factors that has prepared the ground for this week’s short-term holder selloff.
“As the primary suppliers of crypto in the market, their activity has exerted selling pressure on BTC, preventing it from surpassing the $110K level,” he tells Decrypt.
Despite this point, Lienkha affirms that the recent Bybit hack and tariff issues have “forced” short-term holders to liquidate their positions.
“Around the $80K price level, we observed a significant portion of short-term investors exiting the market at a loss,” he explains. “Historically, such capitulation events often signal a temporary stabilization phase in the market.”
Other data available on CryptoQuant shows that roughly 4.6 million Bitcoin is now being held at a loss, while the short-term holder MVRV (market value-to-realized value) ratio has dropped to 0.89.
The equivalent figure for long-term holders is 3.59, with any reading at 1.0 or above signalling that an overall profit.
“Long-term investors began accumulating assets well before the elections, and a significant portion of them remain in a profit zone at current price levels,” adds Lienkha.
Other analysts confirm that STHs have been leading or at least exacerbating this week’s dump, with 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen telling Decrypt that many such holders jumped on board in the second half of January.
“Recent data indicates that approximately 70% of Bitcoin (BTC) sales originate from investors who purchased at unfavorable levels within the past month, particularly following President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025,” he says.
These are the investors now selling at a loss, yet Thielen says that we do not necessarily need to go too far back in time to find traders in profit.
“Conversely, those who acquired BTC around the time of Trump’s election in November 2024 are still in profit and are not actively selling their holdings,” he added.
One revealing metric is the adjusted long-term holder-to-short-term holder ratio, which classifies LTHs as any address that has held BTC between six months and three years, and which classifies STHs as any address that has held BTC for under six months.
This had fallen from 1.5 at the end of October to a three-and-a-half-year low of 0.90 on February 9, indicating a potentially volatile preponderance of short-term over long-term holders.
Even after the shakeout of the past few days, it remains at 0.92, and with the STH MVRV at a six-month low, it suggests that things could still get worse before they get better.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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