Key Takeaways
BTC lost $110K and must defend $108K to reinforce the bullish trend. But will it hold ahead of a likely September rate cut?
On the 29th August, Bitcoin [BTC] cracked the $110K support and retreated lower to $108K, bringing its pullback to 13% from the recent peak of $124K.
The extended drop followed a broader sell-off, seen across U.S. equity markets too, following July’s inflation data.
Still, the correction was within the 30% range seen in the past bull markets. But Crypto Twitter was flooded with “market top” calls.
At the same time, macro analysts stayed bullish, further complicating BTC’s outlook. So what’s next for Bitcoin after the latest drop?
Charting the mid-term risk
One of the cycle’s top callers was Ali Martinez, who cited RSI divergence on the price charts and a price action that mirrored the 2021 market peak.
Failure to hold above $108.7K could set the stage for further decline.
“The top may be in for Bitcoin, at least temporarily. The bullish case would require two key validations: $108,700 holds as support. A golden cross reappears on the MVRV Momentum indicator.”
Source: X
Indeed, AMBCrypto established the scary resemblance of the 2021 cycle peak (white line) to the current traction.
In fact, if the correlation remains positive, BTC could retreat and bottom out around $70K.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
On-chain cost basis in focus
On-chain data also signaled risk if BTC cracked below $108K.
According to Glassnode data, the level was a short-term holder cost basis that could act as support or resistance.
In the past, a break below triggered distress selling and sustained weakness. Naturally, such a scenario could drag BTC below $100K.
“History shows that trading below short-term holders’ cost basis (~$108.9k) often precedes multi-month bears. If support breaks, the statistical band points to a mid-term bottom near $93k–$95k.”
Source: Glassnode
Macro tailwinds still intact?
On the macro front, the U.S. Treasury borrowing from the public could drain dollar liquidity and strain risk assets in the next few weeks, according to analysts.
At the same time, the market consensus for a 25 bps interest rate cut in September rate cuts has hit nearly 90%.
Swissblock analysts, however, argued that the Fed policy rate could impact BTC more than the 2021 correlation.
In fact, even JP Morgan projected that BTC could hit $126K by the end of the year.
Based on the expected Fed rate cuts, Alex Kruger said that the cycle was far from over and the run could extend to 2026.
“Even if we were to go down from here, I feel extremely confident this is not the end of the cycle.”
Overall, from historical price chart technicals and on-chain data, a near-term risk of distress sell-off was evident if BTC loses $108K. However, the macro landscape was still positive in the mid-term.
