- Dogecoin’s $0.15 support level under intense scrutiny.
- Other market participants are absorbing the sell-side pressure.
Dogecoin bleeds beneath the weight of its own giants.
In just a week, 570 million DOGE have slipped from whale hands into the abyss, a quiet flood of capitulation. On-chain, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) ticks red.
In short, each coin moved marks a loss realized, a story of fading FOMO.
Yet despite the bearish undercurrent, DOGE has limited its weekly decline to just 1.50%, with price consolidating around the $0.15 mark.
According to AMBCrypto, this resilience hints at buy-side strength – perhaps from retail or mid-tier cohorts – absorbing the sell-side liquidity and softening the blow.
But does this resilience confirm a bottom? Or is it merely a pause before the next leg down?
Capitulation from the top
Dogecoin has retraced all of its post-election gains, now trading 70% below its November 2024 peak of $0.49.
As a result, a substantial portion of Short-Term Holders (STHs) are currently sitting on unrealized losses or have already liquidated their positions near break-even levels.
The chart below illustrates this distribution. On the 17th of January, 17.47% of DOGE’s circulating supply was held by the 1-3 month cohort, marking it as the third-largest holder group.
In fact, this cohort’s concentration aligns with DOGE’s yearly peak of $0.41. Hence, coinciding with the FOMO-driven rally.
As of the latest data, this cohort now holds 6.5% of DOGE’s circulating supply, representing a significant reduction in their holdings since the local top.
Source: Glassnode
This contraction in supply is reinforced by the negative SOPR, validating that a significant portion of these STHs are realizing losses, further indicating a waning conviction in a near-term price reversal.
As whale cohorts and STHs capitulate under low confidence, DOGE’s $0.15 support zone remains vulnerable to further downside pressure.
As such, the confirmation of a market bottom remains inconclusive.
Strong hands refuse to flinch as Dogecoin corrects
Dogecoin’s market structure continues to exhibit structural fragility. However, a subset of high-conviction holders remains undeterred.
Notably, the Hodler Net Position Change flipped positive in confluence with DOGE’s rally to the $0.41 local high earlier this year.
Subsequently, it signaled net accumulation from long-term holders during a period of market euphoria.
Moreover, as shown in the chart above, the 1-2 year cohort became the primary accumulator, with their holdings increasing from 28% to 32%. Hence, solidifying their position as the dominant Dogecoin cohort.
Source: Glassnode
In addition, the spot market flows indicate a clear trend of retail absorption, as net outflows of 16.48 million DOGE align with Dogecoin’s recent retracement to $0.14.
This suggests that retail wallets are absorbing the sell-side pressure.
Collectively, these cohorts are soaking up the distribution from STHs and whale addresses, both of which, in turn, are experiencing substantial reductions in address counts.
Dogecoin is clearly ensnared in a market tug-of-war.
Nonetheless, LTH accumulation serves as a key bullish signal for potential market recovery. However, DOGE’s breakout from its current consolidation remains contingent upon the full absorption of sell-side liquidity.
Until then, the $0.15 support level remains structurally fragile. Hence, DOGE’s recent price stability may represent a transient equilibrium rather than a confirmed reversal.
