- XRP has been holding its $2 floor, yet, cracks may be forming beneath the surface.
- Is another corrective phase inevitable?
Ripple [XRP] is still holding its ground at the $2 level, but there are signs that things might not be as stable underneath. Price consolidation usually hints at a coming rally, a quiet sign that investors are loading up.
But this time, the drop in network activity – fewer transactions, fewer active users – tells a different story. Maybe this silence isn’t strength building… maybe it’s the market pulling back.
Silent sign of overvaluation
On the surface, XRP continues to trade 307% above its Election Day opening price – a notable outperformance.
In fact, since November, the asset has retested the $2 support zone on four separate occasions, each time confirming it as a reliable demand area.
These bounces have triggered sharp V-shaped recoveries, reflecting strong buyer absorption.
Source: TradingView (XRP/USDT)
However, zooming in on recent price action, XRP’s latest retracement – on the 7th of April, driven by the tariff-induced market correction – resulted in a close at $1.60.
Notably, this represented the lowest close in over five months.
According to AMBCrypto, this decline raises concerns about XRP’s vulnerability to deeper corrections.
It suggests a weakening of the underlying bid wall, signaling that XRP may be showing the first signs of overvaluation.
Ripple’s weakening base : A red flag for bulls?
Beyond smart money, the injection of fresh capital into a network is pivotal for fueling FOMO around critical support zones.
In many cases, such inflows provide the necessary momentum to flip reactive levels into structural support.
Simultaneously, while whale accumulation can catalyze a rapid price reversal by absorbing liquidity at lower levels, it also introduces the risk of centralization, as large holders control an increasing share of the asset.
Hence, distorting market dynamics. Ripple appears to be undergoing a similar structural shift.
Over the past month, Ripple has exhibited clear signs of network contraction, with newly generated wallet addresses declining from 5,200 to 2,900 – representing a 44% drop in address entropy.
This sharp drop in address creation signals a slowdown in retail onboarding.
Furthermore, this weakening network activity is corroborated by a notable spike in the NVT ratio (Network Value to Transactions Ratio).
Source: Glassnode
When Ripple’s NVT ratio climbs, it often means that the asset’s price is rising faster than its real network usage.
In other words, with decelerating network growth and recent structural retracements, XRP appears to be trading at a premium relative to its network fundamentals.
Consequently, this divergence functions as an early warning indicator, suggesting a potential reversion to fair value or a price correction in the near term.
