Key Takeaways
XRP faced mounting pressure amid conflicting signals: strong whale accumulation contrasts with declining network activity, elevated valuation metrics, and bearish technical indicators. Bulls must defend $3.10 to sustain momentum.
Ripple [XRP] has witnessed significant whale activity, with over 280 million tokens accumulated in just ten days—an apparent signal of long-term confidence.
However, the transfer of 16.8 million XRP (worth over $54 million) to Coinbase by an unknown wallet has triggered concerns over a potential sell-off.
While accumulation typically reflects bullish intent, the timing of this large exchange inflow complicates the outlook.
At press time, XRP traded at $3.11 after a 10.3% drop in 24 hours. The angle will be to assess whether the bullish momentum can survive amid this growing uncertainty.
Will bulls defend the critical support at $3.10?
After rallying to $3.66, XRP retraced sharply and now consolidates just above the crucial $3.10 support zone. This area, once a resistance ceiling, is now under pressure to act as a solid floor.
However, the MACD lines crossed bearishly at press time, hinting at declining momentum.
Price structure shows indecision, and if bulls fail to defend the level, the next possible drop could push XRP toward $2.63.
Therefore, the coming sessions will be decisive, as a sustained hold at $3.10 could stabilize the trend, but failure may trigger accelerated downside movement.
Source: TradingView
Has XRP’s on-chain activity collapsed too fast to ignore?
XRP’s network growth and transaction count soared throughout mid-July, peaking between the 18th and the 22nd of July.
However, both metrics plummeted on the 24th of July, with network growth falling to 1,899 and transaction count dropping to just 286K.
This steep collapse signals a sudden drop in new user acquisition and on-chain usage. Such a sharp decline disrupts any sustained bullish narrative and could reflect a fading market interest.
Therefore, unless these metrics bounce quickly, the recent rally may lack the on-chain support needed to sustain upward momentum or defend the $3.10 support level effectively.
Is XRP’s valuation running ahead of utility?
At the time of writing, XRP’s MVRV Z-score cooled to 3.49, easing profit-taking risks after reaching overheated levels earlier this month.
However, the NVT ratio remained elevated at 699, suggesting the token may be overpriced relative to its actual on-chain utility.
This imbalance often precedes market corrections or range-bound consolidations. Unless network activity rebounds, buyers could remain hesitant.
As a result, XRP might struggle to justify its current valuation, especially with weakening user metrics.
The prevailing disconnect between price and usage paints a cautious outlook, despite the temporary cooling off in the MVRV ratio.
Can XRP’s rally survive shifting on-chain dynamics?
XRP’s short-term trajectory now hangs in the balance. Despite strong whale accumulation, the rise in exchange inflows, collapsing network activity, and inflated NVT ratio suggest growing downside risks.
With price hovering around the $3.10 support zone, bulls must act swiftly to maintain control. If on-chain engagement does not rebound soon, the current structure may fail.
Therefore, XRP needs both technical and fundamental alignment to sustain its rally, and without a recovery in usage metrics, the bullish narrative may fade quickly in the coming sessions.
