Key Takeaways
Will altcoins front a comeback?
There may be some room for growth, if broader sentiment improves.
Can ETF boost a potential altcoin surge?
This could be likely. However, so far, SOL’s ETF’s debut is yet to trigger a meaningful run.
There are more altcoins that have dropped by over 60% than those with gains over the past year, according to Arkham data.
Over 300 crypto assets, led by dogwifhat [WIF] and Shiba Inu [SHIB], have declined by 30%-60% over the said period. In other words, over half of the altcoin market might be in distress right now.
Source: Arkham
Will ETF hype drive risk-on sentiment?
Well, the poor performance of these assets isn’t surprising. In fact, the overall altcoin season index (ASI) reading slumped in H1 2025 after the U.S election-driven rally in late 2024.
From nearly 90%, the ASI dropped to about 10% – A sign that the altcoin surge had rolled back the gains made in 2024. The bearish streak was driven by tariff wars.
However, another altcoin surge occurred in Q2 2025 and gained momentum in the July-September period. This followed an improved macro backdrop.
Unfortunately, sentiment was soured by the October flash crash and another U.S-China tariff scuffle. Although the tariff issue has been solved now, the losses from the flash crash have capped risk-on appetite. This dragged the ASI from an “altcoin season” to a neutral level.
Source: Blockchain Centre
Bitcoin‘s market dominance has been consolidating at around 60%, meaning that the altcoins still have room for growth.
Could the ETF hype be the catalyst for select altcoins, such as Solana [SOL] and XRP? In particular, SOL’s ETF smashed records in its debut week.
However, SOL’s price continued to consolidate between $180 and $200, despite the Bitwise SOL ETF seeing record weekly inflows.
Source: SOL/USDT, TradingView
XRP has also struggled below $2.7 ahead of a wave of ETF approvals. However, like SOL, Options data showed neutral to bullish sentiment in the near-term.
Beyond the ETF candidates, Chainlink [LINK] and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance [FET] are noteworthy altcoins that have seen massive accumulation drives. Or outflows from the Binance exchange.
Source: CryptoQuant
