Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s MVRV dropped below SMA365, signaling the $124.4K correction may extend. Also, Spot Taker CVD tilt and heavy long positioning increased risk around the $110K–$108.8K support.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] MVRV ratio dipped below its 365-day SMA, a signal often linked to weakening cycle strength and extended corrections.
Since the March 2024 high at 2.77, the ratio has consistently posted lower highs, reflecting fading momentum after Bitcoin’s $124.4K peak.
With MVRV trending below the long-term benchmark, the risk of prolonged correction strengthened. However, rising adoption and institutional demand make this cycle more complex.
Naturally, the key question is whether historical cycle warnings will hold or broader demand can offset the weakness.
Will $110K support hold after trendline break?
Bitcoin’s latest drop has pushed prices toward $110.6K, breaking below a key ascending trendline.
This shift pointed to further weakness as the market struggled to maintain a bullish structure. Support rested near $108.8K, with deeper downside potential toward $100K if selling intensifies.
Meanwhile, the RSI stood at 40.27, showing momentum near oversold levels and highlighting fragile sentiment.
Having said that, previous rebounds around these levels suggest buyers could defend this zone. The next sessions will prove critical in deciding whether Bitcoin stabilizes or extends its decline.
Source: TradingView
Could THIS extend Bitcoin’s correction?
Spot Taker CVD over the last 90 days showed alternating control, with recent sessions tilting sell.
This pattern kept pressure on Spot markets and challenged quick bullish reversals.
When Spot flows lean heavily toward selling, rallies tend to face quick rejection. On top of that, ETF and institutional inflows stayed supportive.
The short-term picture remained mixed.
If Taker Sell Dominance continues, Bitcoin could face increasing difficulty recovering above resistance zones. The imbalance leaves the market vulnerable unless buying pressure strengthens quickly.
Source: CryptoQuant
Are traders’ long bets setting up a bigger risk?
Data from Binance showed longs at 64.55% against shorts at 35.45%, with a Long/Short Ratio of 1.82, favoring bullish accounts. This heavy tilt toward longs indicates strong conviction among leveraged traders.
However, such imbalances often raise the risk of sudden liquidation cascades if prices slip further. While optimism dominates, overconfidence could accelerate declines during volatile sessions.
Source: CoinGlass
Conclusively, Bitcoin’s outlook hinges on whether buyers can defend the $110K–$108.8K support zone. MVRV breakdown, Taker Sell Dominance, and overextended long positioning all raise caution.
But, strong demand drivers, including ETF inflows, kept the broader cycle alive. If buyers held key levels, Bitcoin could base for a new leg higher.
