- Global monetary policies have been inflationary, and these could spur demand for BTC
- A $200k price target for Bitcoin before the end of 2025 may be a conservative estimate
While Bitcoin [BTC] tested the $109.6k resistance zone once again on Monday, 07 July, it faced a rejection. Within 16 hours, the price dipped by 1.4%. Last week, the $110k resistance zone had been tested unsuccessfully, bringing the price down 2.77% to $107.4k. The price action in the short term indicated consolidation and a spring coiling before the next move.
Bitcoin remaining above the $100k-mark should fill investors with confidence. And yet, questions around its broader adoption remain relevant. In fact, CIO of Miller Value Partners commented on Bitcoin’s popularity amongst institutional investors recently. He noted that it’s all a game of risk management for TradFi.
The inflationary monetary policies globally mean that in the long term, Bitcoin would continue to appreciate. With Bitcoin’s halving done in April 2024, this cycle’s end may be drawing closer, although it likely isn’t at hand yet.
Hence, the question – How much higher can the price go this time?
Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart shares an optimistic prediction
Using a more conservative model of the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart called the Halving Price Regression (HPR), AMBCrypto tried to mark where the current cycle top might arrive. The HPR excludes the hype cycle and uses plots a non-linear regression curve based only on BTC’s price on 3 halving dates.
BTC appeared to still be in a “buy” zone. Based on the length of the previous cycle, we can expect this cycle’s top to arrive sometime in Q4 2025. Assuming it is the start of November, Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart suggested that the price would be at least $157k, or even an optimistic $217k.
It is notoriously hard to predict when the cycle could find its top, and what the price could be. In fact, another popular and reliable indicator, the Pi Cycle Top indicator, showed that the cycle might be nowhere near its zenith.
The 350-day SMA x2, the purple line, would need to see a crossover by the 111-day moving average. At the time of writing, the former (purple) was at $172k, while the latter (cyan) was $97.7k. This suggested that should this indicator fire a top signal again, Bitcoin’s 111-day MA would have to climb to at least $172k.
To drive the 111-day moving average that high, BTC’s price must go even higher, and stay higher. If Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart and the Pi Cycle Top Indicator prove reliable once again, we could see the price push well above $200k.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion
