- Bitcoin’s short-term holders are selling at a loss.
- BTC’s bullish trend depends on the market behavior of STHs.
After rallying to $112k ten days ago, Bitcoin [BTC] faced strong rejection, dipping to a low of $103k.
The recent dip has hurt short-term holders’ profitability. Those who bought above $104K now face mounting unrealized losses.
Source: checkonchain
Short-term holders are now selling at a loss. According to CryptoQuant analyst Frost, Bitcoin’s STH SOPR has dipped below 1 while BTC holds above $100K—a positive sign.
At press time, the SOPR was at 0.99, meaning recent buyers are closing positions at a loss.
Despite lower profitability, short-term holders continue selling aggressively. Bitcoin’s Average Dormancy has dropped sharply to 8.5, indicating younger coins are being spent more than older ones.
This confirms that most selling pressure is coming from short-term holders.
Source: CryptoQuant
Despite selling pressure from short-term holders (STH), CryptoQuant analyst Frost remains optimistic.
He notes that the recent drop in STH SOPR means all available short-term profits have been absorbed. In other words, there’s no more easy profit left to take, signaling that selling pressure may be exhausted at this level.
Since STHs are highly reactive to market moves, this could support a bullish continuation.
As losses mount, selling becomes unsustainable, making holders more likely to accumulate and hold rather than sell at a loss.
What does this mean for BTC?
The declining SOPR and low average dormancy suggest that short-term holders (STH) panicked and sold as Bitcoin fell.
This recent dip has been largely driven by STH, fearing a further decline. If they continue selling aggressively, BTC may drop even more.
To sustain bullish momentum, the market must restore confidence among STH, as upward trends rely on positive sentiment and unrealized profits.
Source: CryptoQuant
To sustain momentum, Bitcoin must stay above key short-term holder (STH) realized price levels. The main support sits at $104.2K, with a lower boundary at $96.9K.
At these levels, critical STH price metrics converge, including: STH 1W–1M Realized Price, the STH Realized Price, and the STH 3M–6M Realized Price.
Since BTC is holding above $104.2K, a continued price decline is unlikely, as STH will be incentivized to hold rather than sell.
Clusters above this level have minimal impact on future trends. However, if BTC falls below $104K, it must stay above $96.9K for stability. Failing to hold these levels could erase May’s gains, pushing BTC down to Trump-tariff levels.
