- Bitcoin has held on to the $100k-level, despite $35M in short liquidations and rising macro uncertainty
- Trump’s Fed Chair comments and strong S&P rally added fuel to crypto’s short-term bounce
Bitcoin’s [BTC] resilience has been on full display lately.
Despite a barrage of macro noise, rate cut odds, Trump’s Fed shakeup tease, and institutional reshuffling, BTC is still trading above $100,000 on the charts.
And in doing so, it has kept FOMO on a low simmer without flipping into euphoria.
Such a setup screams bullish continuation. You see, we’re halfway through 2025, and the market’s leaning hard into the rate-cut narrative – 97.4% odds for a cut at the next FOMC.
That’s a big vote of confidence.
However, here’s the thing – What if the Fed doesn’t budge? What if the CPI ticks higher and inflation throws a wrench in the plan? Mid-June could get messy.
On the contrary, if BTC retains its strength, it could set the tone for a breakout heading into the second half of the year.
Resilient labor market strengthens BTC’s macro setup
May’s Non-Farm Payrolls report came in solid. 139,000 jobs added vs. 125,000 expected, though slightly below April’s 147,000.
The unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%, highlighting a steady but healthy labor market.
Source: Trading Economics
Skeptics might argue that this strong employment data contradicts the idea of a rate-cut pivot. After all, why lower borrowing costs when economic activity is stable?
David Hernandez, Crypto Investment Specialist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto,
“BTC has found solid footing above the meaningful $100,000 support level, with each day spent above this level strengthening it as a foundation for future upward moves.”
He added that Bitcoin’s ability to hold through volatility reflects growing institutional conviction. Especially with the Fed funds market pricing in near-100% odds of a pause this June.
Simply put, stable labor data means inflation pressures are manageable without more tightening. This gives the Fed room to pause rate hikes. In turn, it also encourages investment flows into risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
No surprises from the Fed, solid floor for Bitcoin
As the U.S. economy continues to tame inflationary pressures with a string of “better-than-expected” data, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Fed holds rates steady at the upcoming meeting.
However, what about those 97.4% odds priced in? Well, that’s why Bitcoin’s resilience matters.
While short-term volatility is inevitable as investors reposition ahead of the Fed’s decision, BTC’s ability to hold the $100k-level keeps FOMO intact. It also validates its structural support.
In fact, we’ve seen this dynamic play out repeatedly over the past two weeks.
Despite BlackRock reducing its exposure, Bitcoin hasn’t flinched. Holding six figures in the face of institutional distribution underscores just how solid BTC’s macro setup really is.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Trump’s Fed tease stirs the pot
In an unexpected twist, Trump teased a new Fed Chair pick recently, despite Powell’s term running until 2026.
Source: The Kobeissi Letter
His comments added fuel to the speculative fire and helped push crypto markets up 2.5% over 24 hours – Alongside $35 million in short liquidations.
But if this is just hype—and not substance—there’s a risk this relief rally fades just as fast.
If CPI stays contained and the Fed delivers the expected pause, this base at $100k will become launchpad territory.
On the other hand, if the market’s pricing proves premature, we could see a volatility shakeout before the next leg.
Right now, Bitcoin isn’t breaking down – It’s loading up. And, if the macro deck falls into place, the next breakout may not just reclaim highs, but rewrite them.
