- Bitcoin ended May strong, but momentum has stalled as traders await clarity from the Fed.
- A volatile week looms as short positions build and economic data rolls in.
Bitcoin [BTC] kicked off June with a confident stride, wrapping up May with an 11.29% gain and, more importantly, its highest monthly close ever at $104,784.
With that kind of strength, you’d expect “dip-buyers” to come sniffing around fast, triggering a classic short liquidity sweep. But BTC barely moved. It closed the first trading day of June up just 0.95% at $105,775.
It’s a curious stall in momentum. According to AMBCrypto, traders could be holding back, waiting for clarity from the Federal Reserve before fully committing to the risk.
Clock’s ticking: The market wants cuts, not caution
Bitcoin’s sitting on a pretty interesting setup right now.
Exchange reserves are at multi-year lows, Funding Rates are staying green, derivatives liquidity is creeping back in, while spot exchanges keep seeing coins being pulled off. Beneath the surface, robust bid support is quietly accumulating.
But the real catalyst? Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, which is expected to set the market’s directional tone, is likely to hinge on rate cuts. And honestly, the data is giving that scenario some serious weight.
Despite the noise around reciprocal tariffs, April’s inflation cooled slightly to 2.3% month-over-month – a subtle 0.1% drop from March. Not huge, but enough to pull the easing trigger.
Source: Trading Economics
Meanwhile, the market’s betting big on a rate cut, with the odds of a move to the 4.25 – 4.50% target zone jumping to 98.7% from 96.2% in just 24 hours. That’s a clear signal traders are in “hold your horses” mode.
Brace for impact: A volatile week lies ahead for Bitcoin
While all the “buzz” around rate cuts is hitting a fever pitch, the real story lies in the hard data. This week’s lineup of key economic releases will put May’s trade war impact under the microscope.
If the numbers confirm a slowdown, the Fed may have little choice but to step in. Until then, traders are bracing for volatility.
Nowhere is that uncertainty more evident than in Binance’s positioning, where longs and shorts are locked in a dead-even 50-50 split.
But make no mistake, the shorts are circling. A sizable short pool is already forming, with a liquidation trigger set at $103,881. If Bitcoin slides back to that level, $39.4 million in longs would be flushed out.
Source: CoinGlass
As for the odds? Despite the market’s growing conviction around a rate cut, history has a way of defying mainstream expectations.
Bitcoin’s bid wall near $100k may be holding for now, but it’s anything but stable. If sentiment overextends and the Fed plays it cautious, don’t be surprised if that bid wall turns from support into a trapdoor.
In turn, cracking the $100k floor – fast.
