Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s recent rally appears to be driven more by a lack of sell-side liquidity than fresh demand. Harvard’s $116 million investment in Bitcoin ETFs adds institutional weight, even as Japan delays its first crypto ETF due to regulatory hurdles.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] rally this week may have less to do with a surge in buying and more with dwindling supply on Binance; a setup that could bring sharper price swings ahead.
Institutional sentiment toward crypto is diverging across global markets. In the U.S., Harvard University has quietly invested $116 million in Bitcoin ETFs.
Meanwhile, in Japan, the launch of the country’s first crypto ETF has been delayed as regulators continue working on finalizing the necessary rules.
Supply squeeze drives Bitcoin higher
Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin’s latest leg up on Binance is being fueled more by limited supply than by a flood of new buyers.
Between March and May, frequent spikes in Taker Volume signaled strong liquidity inflows, especially after April’s drop to $75K.
Naturally, those peaks have shrunk since June, even as prices set record highs, suggesting fewer aggressive purchases.
Source: CryptoQuant
Limit Order Volume also remained subdued, reflecting a lack of sellers near current prices.
The thin order book can push prices higher if supply stays tight. However, it also leaves the market vulnerable to sharp drops if large sell orders suddenly hit.
Harvard’s $116M Bitcoin ETF dive
This tightening supply comes as fresh signs of institutional confidence emerge.
SEC filings for Q2 2025 reveal Harvard University has allocated $116.6 million to BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF; making it the university’s fifth-largest equity holding, ahead of Alphabet.
Source: sec.gov
While Harvard’s portfolio includes heavyweights like Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, IBIT stands out as its only direct Web3 exposure.
The move arrives despite a soft July for Bitcoin ETFs, when inflows lagged and BlackRock’s Ethereum fund briefly outpaced IBIT.
For traders watching Binance’s thinning order books, market liquidity appears to be tightening. Still, Harvard’s entry shows that institutional players remain willing to commit capital.
Japan’s first crypto ETF still on hold
While U.S. institutions like Harvard are moving ahead, Japan’s entry into the crypto ETF space remains stalled.
AMBCrypto had reported earlier this week that SBI Holdings (a major Japanese financial firm) had filed for a Bitcoin-XRP dual ETF, but the firm has since clarified that no applications have been submitted, and stated ,
“Contrary to some media reports, we have not filed any applications with the authority to form an ETF related to crypto assets.”
According to SBI Holdings, the product is still in the planning phase. Filings will come only after regulators finalize legal revisions. These revisions aim to classify certain crypto assets under Japan’s Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.
A representative of the SBI Holdings said,
“In Japan, ETFs that incorporate crypto assets are expected to be approved in a way that aligns with the responses of the financial authorities and tax authorities… Therefore, the filing will be done after these legal revisions have been made.”
The Financial Services Agency’s June proposals marked progress. However, without a confirmed framework or timeline, the launch could be months away.
