Key Takeaways
MicroStrategy’s aggressive accumulation has gone mainstream, setting the blueprint for institutional exposure to Bitcoin. Over 8% of the BTC supply is expected to be locked up by year-end.
Bitcoin [BTC] is entering a “new” institutional era. Five years ago, MicroStrategy [MSTR] lit the fuse with a bold 16,976 BTC purchase.
That position now sits at $1.9 billion in spot value, a staggering 1028.84% unrealized gains.
Enter BlackRock’s IBIT. At just 18 months old, it’s already cracked the top 20 U.S. ETFs with nearly $83.81 billion in market cap.
In fact, analysts are projecting $100 billion before its second anniversary.
So what’s behind this institutional adoption? And more importantly, if this kind of capital keeps flowing, where could BTC realistically close out H2 on rotation alone?
Over 6% of all BTC is now in institutional hands
After five years and 77 strategic entries, MicroStrategy holds an industry-defining 601,550 BTC as of 11th of July. In fact, 22 of those buys were executed in 2025 alone.
Source: Bitbo
In fact, its latest acquisition of 4,225 BTC on the 14th of July is already in profit, up 5.17% in under 48 hours. However, while MSTR sparked the institutional shift, it’s clear the velocity is accelerating elsewhere.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: IBIT), just 1.5 years old, has amassed a commanding 714,094 BTC, accounting for 3.4% of Bitcoin’s capped 21 million supply. Notably, 55,000 BTC were added in 2025 alone.
Together, MSTR and IBIT now command 1.31 million BTC—roughly 6.25% of all Bitcoin ever mined. And this excludes additional ETF inflows from funds like FBTC and ARKB.
MicroStrategy’s playbook goes mainstream
This is where the structural shift truly begins.
According to the Kobeissi Letter, the U.S. alone holds over $31 trillion in assets under management (AUM), across mutual funds, pensions, ETFs, and private firms. Globally, we’re looking at north of $1 trillion.
Now consider this: Bitcoin has delivered a 90% CAGR over the past decade.
Using MicroStrategy’s balance sheet as a real-world benchmark, even a 1% allocation from traditionally conservative funds is now increasingly inevitable.
Technically, that’s $300 billion from U.S. capital alone.
Source: CaseBitcoin.com
IBIT at $100B? Here’s what that means for supply
Based on this rotation, analysts now project IBIT to be on track to hit a $100 billion market cap by January 2026.
At $117k per BTC, that means acquiring 140,607 more BTC, raising IBIT’s holdings to 854,701 BTC, or 4.07% of the total supply.
Add MicroStrategy’s stash and other ETF flows, and over 8% of all BTC could be locked in institutional vaults.
Source: Glassnode
Pair that with on-chain data: BTC Total Supply Last Active 1y–2y has declined from 2.23 million in July 2024 to 2.04 million as of the 14th of July.
With shrinking supply and deepening inflows, BTC could push toward $130k–$150k purely on structural rotation.
