- The Solana market structure was bullish, and its bulls have made rapid gains in recent days.
- The increased profit that holders witnessed now could result in a wave of selling pressure soon.
Solana [SOL] saw its Total Value Locked (TVL) reclaim the levels it was at in mid-February, even though the price is around 40% lower. This reflected bullish fundamentals and high potential for SOL to make more gains.
At the same time, the report also highlighted the high NVT values that suggested the token was overvalued.
Source: Glassnode
Despite the potential for the network, sizeable whale accumulation was not evident from the relative address supply distribution. The metric tracks the amount of circulating supply of Solana held within specific balance bands.
After the November 2023-March 2024 rally that took SOL from $20 to $160, holders with more than 100k SOL added significantly to their holdings. So too did the 1k and higher balance wallets.
These wallets added heavily after the major move, a sign that price moves might not always be preceded by market-wide accumulation.
In November 2023, there was some selling witnessed during the price surge, likely from heavily underwater market participants.
Therefore, the lack of addition to the 100k and higher balance band does not negate the bullish potential for Solana. However, the SOPR could serve as a warning for holders.
Solana tests the $180 resistance once again
At press time, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) was at 1.16. The metric is price sold/price paid, used to analyze whether holders are selling at a profit or loss.
Since December 2024, whenever the SOPR has reached the 1.06-1.1 values, the price of Solana has faced a deep retracement.
A similar situation could occur once again. The chances came not just from the past six months’ pattern, but also from a technical analysis standpoint.
Source: SOL/USDT on TradingView
On the 1-day chart, Solana has a bullish market structure. It had beaten the lower low at $143 of the Q1 2025 downtrend, to reclaim a bullish bias. The same level was retested as support a week ago before the rally to $178.
However, the $180 region has been a stern resistance zone since mid-February. The Awesome Oscillator showed bullish momentum, and the rising OBV underlined steady demand for the token.
Yet, with holders at a sizeable profit again, a price dip from profit-taking activity could occur, based on the SOPR values. Investors can wait for a dip to $150-$160 to buy more, so long as the OBV can maintain its uptrend.
