In brief
- On-chain data shows dormant whales moving 3,000 BTC—often a sign of local tops.
- Options skew turns negative, indicating rising demand for downside protection.
- Spot ETF outflows and halted fund inflows suggest waning institutional appetite.
Bitcoin’s August recovery is heavy-footed as multiple sell signals converge.
Weakness is evidenced by two key metrics that suggest a shift in sentiment. The signals point to a potential pause in upward momentum as long-term holders take profits and sellers gain an edge.
On-chain data shows old whales, dormant for seven to 10 years, moved roughly 3000 BTC on Tuesday. Historically, transfers from these cohorts have often coincided with local tops.
The taker sell volume on futures contracts, meanwhile, has ticked up to August 1 and July 30 levels. The last time this happened also saw an old Bitcoin whale transfer their holdings, triggering a near 6% drop.
Options data shows a shift in sentiment, with the 30-day skew falling from +2% to -2%, suggesting investors are paying more to hedge against declines.
Institutional caution is also evident in the $1.2 billion pulled from spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past two days, adding to the broader sell-side pressure.
It comes as CoinShares’ Digital asset investment products ended a 15-week inflow after a $223 million outflow by the end of July.
The company pointed to a potential trend shift following a “hawkish FOMC meeting and a series of better-than-expected economic data from the U.S.”
The sentiment is reflected in Bitcoin’s own performance, with the asset down 1.5% in August, according to CoinGecko data.
While a negative month for the top crypto is not uncommon—its 12-year historical performance shows a median August return of 0.96%—the current weakness aligns with a broader shift in institutional risk appetite.
“Sideways trading through August is the most probable scenario before momentum resumes,” Georgii Verbitski, founder of DeFi platform TYMIO, told Decrypt.
The effects of uncertainty around tariffs and macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. are palpable.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro, urged caution, pointing to weak market breadth—where gains are concentrated in a few stocks—and negative divergences, with the S&P 500 hitting new highs even as momentum indicators fail to confirm the move.
Despite these signs, Verbitski reiterated that the overall trend for the crypto market remains “positive.” Still, investors should expect some “chop” in the near term, he said.
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