- BTC could enter a corrective phase, with price action remaining within defined boundaries for months.
- Market activity presents mixed signals, with both buying and selling ongoing.
After a brief rally of over 10% yesterday, Bitcoin [BTC] quickly lost those gains, dropping 9.21% in the past 24 hours as the market turned bearish. Its volume rose by 14.53% during this period, indicating a bearish presence.
Following AMBCrypto’s analysis, BTC could remain in this cycle of rallies and declines—generally referred to as a corrective or ranging market.
If this sentiment aligns, BTC would continue to follow its 2021 cycle, which suggests there is still significant upside potential for the asset.
A corrective phase could be imminent
Recent analysis reveals that BTC is in another corrective phase, similar to movements recorded in the summers of 2023 and 2024.
This is determined by UTXO age bands—1-3 months and 3-6 months—which track Bitcoin distribution within these time frames.
According to the analysis, BTC is currently within this same range and could likely consolidate for another two to three months between the $80,000 and $100,000 region before a final breakout to the upside.
Source: Cryptoquant
A bullish breakout would be confirmed once the gap between the 1-3 month and 3-6 month UTXO bands closes, indicating the presence of bulls in the market, with a short-term rally target of $130,000.
Further analysis shows that the market remains bullish as it continues to mirror the bull market cycle between 2018 and 2022.
Given the current market conditions, this suggests there is substantial upside potential, and BTC could trade past the projected short-term rally target of $130,000.
Source: Glassnode
AMBCrypto found that while the bullish corrective phase remains intact in both the short and long term, some level of mixed sentiment has begun to emerge.
BTC stuck in mixed sentiment
The market has begun to show mixed sentiment, a key characteristic of a corrective phase.
At the time of writing, the funding premium indicated rising institutional interest, while the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) signals selling pressure.
The funding market premium stood at 0.9, above the zero threshold, indicating increased institutional buying activity, which generally supports price appreciation. However, BTC is still in decline.
Source: Cryptoquant
This decline could be linked to aSOPR, which tracks whether investors are selling BTC at a profit or loss.
With a press time reading of 1.02, it suggests BTC holders are taking profits while they can, potentially anticipating further price declines.
Until a decisive bullish move occurs, BTC could continue to range without establishing the anticipated breakout.
