- Ethereum dropped to $1,300 after breaking out of its consolidation range following macro-triggered volatility.
- If MVRV slips below 1.03, ETH could fall to $2,323; staying above may allow a retest of $2,700.
Since the 10th of May, Ethereum [ETH] had remained stuck within a consolidation range. Over this period, the altcoin has lacked the momentum to break out to the upside.
That changed after external volatility, sparked by the Trump vs. Musk feud, dragged ETH down to a low of $1,300.
MVRV momentum dips below bullish threshold
Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci pointed to the MVRV Z-Score as a key signal. In his analysis, Burak posited that Ethereum MVRV was at 1.21 points, and it’s continually losing momentum.
Looking at previous cycles, MVRV has played a vital role in determining Ethereum price momentum.
Source: X
When examining the last two bull and bear periods, the values of 0.80 and 3.00 points in MVRV are particularly notable.
In fact, whenever MVRV rose above 3.00 points, ETH heated up and entered the overbought region.
This creates the opportunity to sell gradually. In detail, we can say that the 2.25 level is also a key pivot level. At this level, ETH prices surged significantly during the last 2 bull cycles.
Ethereum’s MVRV was in a negative situation at press time.
The metric has failed to reclaim bull levels since hitting 2.25. This is because, for a potential uptrend, the ETH MVRV score must first close above 1.90 levels.
By doing so, investor perception/sentiment can become more secure and accelerate the upward movement.
Source: TradingView
On top of that, Ethereum’s RSI dropped sharply from 61 to 46, suggesting fading buyer interest and rising sell pressure.
Simultaneously, the MVRV Z-Score slipped further to 1.20, hinting that holders are taking profits as unrealized gains shrink.
Taker activity confirms bearish structure
Source: CryptoQuant
This market condition is validated by the fact that Ethereum’s Taker Buy-Sell Ratio dipped for two consecutive days.
With this metric holding within negative territory, it suggests that sellers are dominating the market. The weakness across spot and derivative sentiment continues to erode MVRV recovery chances.
Unless ETH reclaims 1.90 on the MVRV, a broader rally or altcoin season remains unlikely.
What comes next?
As observed above, Ethereum is at a crossroads.
Buyers’ momentum is weakening while profit-taking is rising. With MVRV sitting around 0.7 points below the potential bull market, while it’s losing momentum, ETH risks a downside move.
Therefore, if these conditions continue, we could see ETH drop on its price charts to around $2323.
Should MVRV stay above 1.03, ETH might retest $2,700. Still, for a full-fledged breakout, MVRV must climb back toward 1.90.
Historically, bull market tops have occurred between 2.9 and 3.4, meaning ETH remains undervalued for now.
