Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin near a market top or is it still mid-cycle?
Bitcoin remains in a mid-cycle phase, with healthy on-chain signals and no signs of euphoria.
Are altcoins setting up for a rebound?
Altcoins are extremely oversold, with potential for a short-term bounce.
Bitcoin [BTC] seems to be holding steady in a healthy mid-cycle phase, leaving the liquidation event behind with strong accumulation trends. Meanwhile, altcoins are still struggling, showing just how oversold the market has become.
With fear hitting extreme levels, could a strong rebound be just around the corner?
We’re still halfway…
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio was at 2.0 – A level that is indicative of a mid-cycle phase.
What this implies is that while most investors are sitting on profits, the kind of hype and overvaluation that marks cycle peaks isn’t here yet. LTHs aren’t rushing to sell, exchange outflows are steady, and institutional flows are helping support the market. All this means healthy consolidation.
Source: Cryptoquant
If history is any guide, we may be closer to the middle of this cycle than the end.
A contrarian opportunity?
Consider this – Only 10% of altcoins on Binance are trading above their 200-day moving averages right now, with each one of them drowning in fear. These extreme levels of disinterest have often been solid entry points before short-term rebounds.
Source: CryptoQuant
Experts believe that previous instances of this setup during the current cycle have often aligned with temporary recoveries. The current environment may hint at a counter-trend forming. However, any potential shift would likely depend on broader sentiment, liquidity conditions, and project-specific fundamentals.
BTC stalls under resistance
After bouncing back from its sharp drop, BTC’s price struggled to gain momentum above $115k on the charts.
In fact, the data underlined hesitation, with sellers still active near that zone. The RSI indicated weak buying pressure, while the DMI lines suggested that bears might be holding a slight edge as the -DI was just above +DI.
Source: TradingView
Unless Bitcoin can reclaim $115k with stronger volume, consolidation between $110k and $115k seems likely. Overall, the charts hinted at cooling momentum, but not a full trend reversal – A typical pause in a mid-cycle market phase.
